How It Works
The calculator first estimates the chance that any single date leads to a compatible match. It then works out the chance that at least one of all your dates in a given period works out.
Your per date chance comes from six factors: how strict your standards are, a fixed 30% mutual interest rate, your age, your city's size, how many ways you meet people and how socially active you are.
Inputs that move your odds most
- Dates per month: more dates means more independent chances.
- Standards strictness: each point on the 1 to 10 scale lowers the compatibility filter by 4 percentage points.
- Dating channels: apps, social events, friends and work or school each raise the platform multiplier.
- Social activity: high activity boosts your odds by 30%, while low activity cuts them by 30%.
What Is the Formula?
Chance per date
- C: compatibility filter = max(0.02, 0.40 minus 0.04 × strictness).
- 0.30: the assumed chance that interest is mutual.
- A: age factor: 1.0 up to 30, 0.85 up to 40, 0.70 up to 50, then 0.55.
- M: platform multiplier = 0.7 + 0.2 × the number of channels ticked.
- S: social multiplier: 0.7 low, 1.0 medium, 1.3 high.
- L: location factor = 0.5 + 0.5 × min(1, population ÷ 2,000,000).
The result is capped between 0.5% and 25% per date, so extreme settings stay realistic.
Chance over time
Here (1 minus p)n is the chance that every date misses, so subtracting it from 1 gives the chance that at least one clicks. Results are capped at 99%.
Dating Odds Chart
Find your approximate chance per date, then read across to see how your odds build as the number of dates grows.
| Chance per date | 6 dates | 12 dates | 24 dates | 48 dates | 96 dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 38% | 62% |
| 2% | 11% | 22% | 38% | 62% | 86% |
| 3% | 17% | 31% | 52% | 77% | 95% |
| 5% | 26% | 46% | 71% | 91% | 99% |
| 10% | 47% | 72% | 92% | 99% | 99% |
At four dates a month, 12 dates is 3 months, 48 dates is one year and 96 dates is two years.
Worked Example
Take the default profile: age 28, a city of 500,000, 4 dates a month, strictness 5/10, dating apps only and medium social activity.
- Compatibility filter: 0.40 minus 0.04 × 5 = 0.20.
- Location factor: 0.5 + 0.5 × (500,000 ÷ 2,000,000) = 0.625.
- Platform multiplier with one channel: 0.7 + 0.2 = 0.9.
- Chance per date: 0.20 × 0.30 × 1.0 × 0.9 × 1.0 × 0.625 = 0.03375, or about 3.4%.
- Over 12 months (48 dates): 1 minus (1 minus 0.03375)48 ≈ 0.81, or 81%.
The same profile gives about 34% at 3 months, 56% at 6 months and 96% at 24 months. At 81% for the year, it lands in the Excellent Odds tier.